Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility.

The size of the human population is projected to peak in the 21st century. But quantitative projections past 2100 are rare, and none quantify the possibility of a rebound from low fertility to replacement-level fertility. Moreover, the most recent long-term deterministic projections were published a decade ago; since then there has been further global fertility decline. Here we provide updated long-term cohort-component population projections and extend the set of scenarios in the literature to include scenarios in which future fertility (a) stays below replacement or (b) recovers and increases. We also characterize old-age dependency ratios. We show that any stable, long-run size of the world population would persistently depend on when an increase towards replacement fertility begins. Without such an increase, the 400-year span when more than 2 billion people were alive would be a brief spike in history. Indeed, four-fifths of all births-past, present, and future-would have already happened.

Saúde em Dados / Health in data

O Boletim CEInfo "Saúde em Dados" é uma publicação em formato eletrônico com periodicidade anual e de livre acesso editado pela Coordenação de Epidemiologia e Informação (CEInfo) da Secretaria Municipal da Saúde de São Paulo (SMS-SP). O documento é apresentado em dois formatos: uma versão em PDF para consulta e download e outra em formato aberto com conteúdo das diferentes unidades territoriais/administrativas do Município de São Paulo ­ Coordenadoria Regional de Saúde/Supervisão Técnica de Saúde e Subprefeitura. O "Saúde em Dados" foi criado para promover a disseminação de dados sobre nascimentos, mortes e adoecimento da população paulistana, além da estrutura de estabelecimentos/serviços da rede SUS e sua produção assistencial com o objetivo de contribuir com a organização das ações de saúde no Município. Desde 2021, são apresentados os registros de síndrome gripal (SG), síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG) e óbitos decorrentes da pandemia de Covid-19. Na sua 22ª edição, foram incluídos a proporção de nascidos vivos com anomalias congênitas prioritárias segundo definição do Ministério da Saúde, além de alguns agravos de notificação compulsória: doenças e agravos relacionados ao trabalho (DART), acidentes e violências. Os coeficientes foram calculados com a projeção da população residente em 2022 e padronizados por idade com base na população residente de 2020 do Município de São Paulo. Como destaque e a partir desta edição, são apresentados indicadores de mortalidade segundo sexo biológico para as doenças isquêmicas do coração, doenças cerebrovasculares, diabetes mellitus, câncer de pulmão e câncer colorretal. As informações podem ser utilizadas na produção de análises sobre a situação de saúde e de apoio aos gestores, trabalhadores e demais interessados em discutir as ações e políticas de saúde na cidade de São Paulo. Assim qualquer pessoa pode acessar estes conteúdos e utilizá-los com diferentes finalidades e formatos, sendo necessária apenas a preservação da sua origem e citação da fonte. Espera-se que esta publicação cumpra sua finalidade como mais um instrumento público de divulgação de informações de saúde, de apoio aos gestores e à participação social do SUS na cidade de São Paulo.

Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.

Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically, most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based approaches and have not assessed uncertainty about future population change. Starting in 2015, however, the United Nations (UN) has produced probabilistic population projections for all countries using a Bayesian approach. There is also considerable interest in subnational probabilistic population projections, but the UN's national approach cannot be used directly for this purpose, because within-country correlations in fertility and mortality are generally larger than between-country ones, migration is not constrained in the same way, and there is a need to account for college and other special populations, particularly at the county level. We propose a Bayesian method for producing subnational population projections, including migration and accounting for college populations, by building on but modifying the UN approach. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the counties of Washington State and comparing the results with extant deterministic projections produced by Washington State demographers. Out-of-sample experiments show that our method gives accurate and well-calibrated forecasts and forecast intervals. In most cases, our intervals were narrower than the growth-based intervals issued by the state, particularly for shorter time horizons.

Comparative demographics, population projections and egg maturation patterns of four eupelmid egg parasitoids on the factitious host Antherae pernyi.

BACKGROUND: The genera Anastatus and Mesocomys (both Hymenoptera: Eupelmidae) are important solitary egg endoparasitoids as biological control agents for lepidopterous and hemipterous pests worldwide. Here, we comparatively evaluated the demographic parameters of four important eupelmid egg parasitoids (Anastatus fulloi, A. japonicus, Mesocomys albitarsis and M. trabalae) reared on the factitious host eggs of the Chinese oak silkworm Antheraea pernyi, using age-stage two-sex life tables, their population projections as well as egg maturation patterns. RESULTS: Both the age-specific net reproductive rate (lx mx ) and reproductive value (vxj ) increased initially and then gradually decreased with increasing age in all four parasitoid species. Overall, the two Mesocomys species had higher survival rates at stable age-stage distribution, peak reproductive values, and intrinsic rates of increase than the two Anastatus species. Mesocomys albitarsis had the longest longevity, whereas A. japonicus had the longest oviposition days and mean generation time. The two Mesocomys species are thus projected to have faster population increase than the two Anastatus species. Adult females of all four parasitoid species emerged with only a few mature eggs (< 6 eggs) and most of their eggs were matured post-emergence (strict synovigeny). The estimated 90% of lifetime complement of reproduction (offspring) and realized days were 374 and 32 for A. japonicus, 337 and 22 for M. trabalae, 330 and 19 for M. albitarsis and 147 and 28 for A. fulloi. CONCLUSION: Our results indicated that the two Mesocomys species have higher control capacity than the two Anastatus species. Provision of adult food for these strictly synovigenic parasitoids would be essential to prolong their lifespan and continuously produce eggs for parasitizing their hosts for mass rearing or augmentative biological control programs. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Trajetórias socioeconômicas compartilhadas no Brasil: cenários para a dinâmica populacional e os desafios à adaptação e mitigação / Shared socioeconomic pathways in Brazil: Scenarios for population dynamics and the challenges to adaptation and mitigation / Trayectorias socioeconómicas compartidas en Brasil: escenarios de dinámica poblacional y desafíos para la adaptación y mitigación

Resumo Dentre os múltiplos avanços científicos na compreensão das relações entre mudanças climáticas e dinâmica populacional, uma das principais inovações ocorreu na atual geração de modelagem climática, com a inclusão de um conjunto de cenários em que as questões populacionais são centrais. Baseados em narrativas de trajetórias socioeconômicas, estes cenários traçam alternativas para os desenvolvimentos sociais futuros, que, por sua vez, consideram projeções populacionais multidimensionais, construídas a partir das variáveis sexo, idade e escolaridade. Tais projeções incorporam heterogeneidades populacionais relevantes para a adaptação, sendo, potencialmente, mais sensíveis às mudanças na dinâmica demográfica e à compreensão da relação população e ambiente. No Brasil, contudo, tanto os pressupostos como as implicações desta abordagem são quase inexistentes. O presente artigo aborda esta discussão para o país, considerando seus aspectos teóricos e metodológicos. Destacam-se algumas das inferências da abordagem das shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) - trajetórias socioeconômicas compartilhadas - para construir projeções populacionais no nível subnacional, enfatizando os ganhos potenciais desta agenda no campo de população e ambiente.

Abstract During the past decades, there were scientific advances to better comprehend climate change and population dynamics. One of the main ones was the inclusion of a set of scenarios in current generation of climate modelling, with population as its human core. These are the shared socioeconomic pathways that result in population projections constructed by multi-dimensional demography, with population disaggregated by, sex, age and educational attainment. Such projections incorporate relevant population heterogeneities to adaptation and are potentially more sensitive to capture changes in demographic dynamics. This paper addresses this discussion for Brazil, considering both theoretical and methodological aspects. We highlight some of the implications of SSPs approach to construct population projections at the subnational level, emphasizing the benefits this agenda could bring to the population and environment fields.

Resumen Los avances en la ciencia para una mejor comprensión de las relaciones entre el cambio climático y la dinámica de la población se han producido en varios campos durante las últimas tres décadas. Una de las principales innovaciones se observa en la generación actual de modelos climáticos, con la inclusión de un conjunto de escenarios en los que los temas de población son centrales. Estos escenarios, denominados trayectorias socioeconómicas compartidas, esbozan alternativas para futuros desarrollos sociales que, a su vez, consideran proyecciones poblacionales multidimensionales, construidas a partir de las variables sexo, edad y educación. Estas proyecciones incorporan heterogeneidades de población relevantes para la adaptación y son potencialmente más sensibles a los cambios en la dinámica demográfica. Este artículo aborda esta discusión para Brasil, considerando sus aspectos teóricos y metodológicos. Se destacan algunas de las implicaciones del enfoque para construir proyecciones de población en el ámbito subnacional, con énfasis los logros que esta agenda puede traer al campo de población y medio ambiente.

A study on social contact rates relevant for the spread of infectious diseases in a Brazilian slum / Um estudo sobre as taxas de contatos sociais relevantes para a difusão de doenças infecciosas em um aglomerado brasileiro / Un estudio sobre las tasas de contactos sociales relevantes para la propagación de enfermedades infecciosas en un barrio popular del Brasil

Abstract Inspired by the POLYMOD study, an epidemiological survey was conducted in June 2021 in one of the most densely populated and socially vulnerable sectors of Belo Horizonte (Brazil). A sample of 1000 individuals allowed us to identify, within a 24-hour period, the rates of social contacts by age groups, the size and frequency of clique in which respondents participated, as well as other associated sociodemographic factors (number of household residents, location of contact, use of public transportation, among others). Data were analyzed in two phases. In the first one, results between two SIR models that simulated an eight-day pandemic process were compared. One included parameters adjusted from observed contact rates, the other operated with parameters adjusted from projected rates for Brazil. In the second phase, by means of a log-lin regression, we modeled the main social determinants of contact rates, using clique density as a proxy variable. The data analysis showed that family size, age, and social circles are the main covariates influencing the formation of cliques. It also demonstrated that compartmentalized epidemiological models, combined with social contact rates, have a better capacity to describe the epidemiological dynamics, providing a better basis for mitigation and control measures for diseases that cause acute respiratory syndromes.

Resumo Inspirado no estudo POLYMOD, foi realizado, em junho de 2021, um survey epidemiológico num dos setores de maior densidade populacional e vulnerabilidade social de Belo Horizonte (Brasil). Uma amostra de 1.000 domicílios permitiu identificar, num período de 24 horas, as taxas de contatos sociais por faixas etárias, o tamanho e a frequência de cliques do qual participou o respondente, assim como outros fatores sociodemográficos associados (número de moradores do domicílio, local do contato, uso do transporte público, entre outros). Os dados foram analisados em duas fases. Na primeira, foram comparados os resultados entre dois modelos SIR que simularam um processo pandêmico de oito dias. Um incluiu parâmetros ajustados a partir das taxas de contatos observadas. O outro operou com parâmetros ajustados a partir de taxas projetadas para o Brasil. Na segunda fase, mediante uma regressão log-lin, modelamos os principais determinantes sociais das taxas de contato, utilizando o adensamento de cliques como uma variável proxy. A análise dos dados mostrou que o tamanho da família, a idade e os círculos sociais são as principais covariáveis que influenciam a formação dos cliques. Também demonstrou que modelos epidemiológicos compartimentais, combinados com taxas de contato social, têm melhor capacidade de descrever a dinâmica epidemiológica, fornecendo uma melhor base para medidas de mitigação e controle de doenças que causam síndromes respiratórias agudas.

Resumen Con inspiración en el estudio POLYMOD, se hizo una encuesta epidemiológica, en junio de 2021, en uno de los sectores más densamente poblados y socialmente vulnerables de Belo Horizonte (Brasil). Una muestra de mil hogares permitió identificar, en un período de 24 horas, el tamaño y la frecuencia de los cliques en los que participó el encuestado, las tasas de contactos sociales por grupos de edad, así como otros factores sociodemográficos asociados (número de residentes en el hogar, lugar de contacto, uso del transporte público, entre otros). Los datos se analizaron en dos fases. En la primera, se compararon los resultados entre dos modelos SIR que simularon un proceso pandémico de ocho días. Uno incluyó parámetros ajustados a partir de tasas de contacto observadas; el otro operó con parámetros ajustados a partir de tasas proyectadas para Brasil. En la segunda, mediante una regresión log-lin, se modelaron los principales determinantes sociales de las tasas de contacto, utilizando la densificación de cliques como una variable proxy. El análisis de los datos mostró que el tamaño de la familia, la edad y los círculos sociales son las principales covariables que influyen en la formación de camarillas. También demostró que los modelos epidemiológicos compartimentados, combinados con tasas de contacto social, son más capaces de describir la dinámica epidemiológica, proporcionando una mejor base para las medidas de mitigación y control de las enfermedades causantes de síndromes respiratorios agudos.

Realidad de la Reumatología en España y sus comunidades autónomas antes de la pandemia / The reality of Rheumatology in Spain and its autonomous communities before the pandemic

Objetivo: Determinar el número de reumatólogos por 100.000 habitantes en activo en centros públicos o privados en el conjunto de España, por comunidades autónomas y su distribución por edad y sexo. Material y método: Estudio transversal utilizando la información contenida en la base de datos de la Sociedad Española de Reumatología, con datos confirmados por los responsables de los servicios clínicos de cada uno de los hospitales (públicos y privados) disponibles en la base de datos. Se analizó edad, sexo y lugar de trabajo de los reumatólogos en activo en febrero de 2020. Se calcularon tasas de reumatólogos por 100.000 habitantes a partir de datos de población del Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Resultados: Se estimó una tasa de especialistas en reumatología por 100.000 habitantes en España de 2,17. El porcentaje de mujeres fue del 59,7%, siendo superior la proporción mujer/hombre en edades más jóvenes. La menor relación de especialistas por 100.000 habitantes se registró en la Comunidad Valenciana (1,6), y la mayor en Cantabria (3,2). Conclusiones: Se encontraron variaciones en la tasa de reumatólogos por 100.000 habitantes entre comunidades autónomas. La distribución por sexo mostró una tendencia a un incremento de mujeres reumatólogas.(AU)

Objectives: To determine the number of rheumatologists per 100,000 inhabitants working in public or private centres in Spain as a whole, and by Autonomous Community and their distribution by age and sex. Material and method: Cross-sectional study based on the information contained in the database of the Spanish Society of Rheumatology. Quality control was performed by contact (e-mail and telephone call) with the heads of the clinical services of each of the hospitals (public and private). The information analysed was the age, sex and place of work of active rheumatologists in February 2020. The rates of rheumatologists per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated from population data from the National Institute of Statistics. Results: The rate of rheumatology specialists per 100,000 inhabitants in Spain was estimated at 2.17. The percentage of women was 59.7%, with a higher female/male ratio at younger ages. The lowest proportion of specialists per 100,000 inhabitants was in the community of Valencia (1.6), and the highest in Cantabria (3.2). Conclusions: Variations were found in the rate of rheumatologists per 100,000 inhabitants among the Autonomous Communities. The distribution by age and sex showed a tendency towards female rheumatologists, especially in the younger age strata.(AU)

COVID-19, cisnes negros y anticipación de desastres sanitarios: problemas futuros y el futuro como problema en la ética de la Salud Pública / COVID-19, black swans and the anticipation of health disasters: future problems and the future as a problem in Public Health ethics

La pandemia de la COVID-19 ha recordado la importancia de prevenir y planificarse ante eventos altamente desastrosos para lasalud comunitaria. Varios fenómenos emergentes suponen amenazas prospectivas para la Salud Pública. Sin embargo, el caráctermayormente futuro de problemas como la resistencia antibiótica, el impacto del cambio climático en la salud o la bioingeniería depatógenos genera dificultades de análisis. ¿Cuáles son los desafíos éticos y epistemológicos que suscitan los problemas futurospara la Salud Pública? ¿Cómo deben abordarse los problemas morales de escenarios futuros, potencialmente catastróficos? Eneste artículo se defiende la necesidad de adoptar enfoques éticos anticipativos desde la ética de la Salud Pública. En primer lugar,se argumentará que el abordaje de estos problemas futuros requiere reflexionar sobre el futuro como problema ético y epistémico.En segundo lugar, se analizarán las características de la incipienteética anticipatoria en los ámbitos de la ética de la tecnología y labioética. En tercer lugar, se defenderá la aplicación de metodologías de previsión y anticipación en debates sobre la ética de la SaludPública. Finalmente, se ofrecerán algunas reflexiones para fortalecer los análisis normativos anticipativos a fin de prevenir y atajar deantemano los efectos adversos de las futuras crisis sanitarias.(AU)

The COVID-19 pandemic has recalled the importance of prevention and preparedness for highly disastrous events in communityhealth. Several emerging phenomena pose prospective threats to public health. However, the largely future-oriented character ofproblems, for instance, such as antibiotic resistance, the impact of climate change on health, or the bioengineering of pathogensgenerates difficulties of analysis. What are the ethical and epistemological challenges raised by future public health problems? Howshould the moral problems of potentially catastrophic future scenarios be addressed? This article argues in favour of adopting antici-patory ethical approaches from public health ethics. First, it will be argued that addressing these future problems requires reflectionon the future as an ethical and epistemic problem. Second, the characteristics of the emerginganticipatory ethics in the fields ofethics of technology and bioethics will be clarified. Third, the application of foresight and anticipatory methodologies in public healthethics debates will be defended. Finally, some reflections will be offered to strengthen anticipatory normative analyses to prevent andaddress in advance the adverse effects of future health crises.(AU)

A two-sex renewal model and its population projection.

Population projections rely on one-sex renewal models. Consequently, changing the projection of male mortality does not affect the projection of birth, contradicting commonsense. A two-sex renewal model is presented in this paper to provide a better description of reproduction and more reasonable population projections. This model is nonlinear and includes the one-sex renewal models as special cases. In this model, age-specific birth rates are defined for two sexes jointly; total fertility, net reproduction rate, and intrinsic growth rate are also derived for two sexes jointly; and age-specific populations approach or converge to stable status. Applying the two-sex renewal model to Australia, it indicates that one-sex models underestimated the intrinsic growth rate by 14 percent. Compared to the results of one-sex models, the two-sex model would provide higher growth rate for low-fertility countries, and lower growth rate for high-fertility countries. In other words, the one-sex models are commonly biased. If the two-sex model is applied to all the countries, it would project smaller populations for the world in the future.

Undocumented Older Latino Immigrants in the United States: Population Projections and Share of Older Undocumented Latinos by Health Insurance Coverage and Chronic Health Conditions, 2018-2038.

OBJECTIVES: This article focuses on the older Latino undocumented population and anticipates how their current demographic characteristics and health insurance coverage might affect future population size and health insurance trends. METHODS: We use the 2013-2018 American Community Survey as a baseline to project growth in the Latino 55 and older undocumented population over the next 20 years. We use the cohort component method to estimate population size across different migration scenarios and distinguish between aging in place and new immigration. We also examine contemporary health insurance coverage and chronic health conditions among 55 and older undocumented Latinos from the 2003-2014 California Health Interview Survey. We then project health insurance rates in 2038 among Latino immigrants under different migration and policy scenarios. RESULTS: If current mortality, migration, and policy trends continue, projections estimate that 40% of undocumented Latino immigrants will be 55 years or older by 2038-nearly all of whom will have aged in place. Currently, 40% of older Latino undocumented immigrants do not have insurance. Without policies that increase access to insurance, projections estimate that the share who are uninsured among all older Latinos immigrants will rise from 15% to 21%, and the share who is both uninsured and living with a chronic health condition will rise from 5% to 9%. DISCUSSION: Without access to health care, older undocumented immigrants may experience delayed care and more severe morbidity. Our projections highlight the need to develop and enact policies that can address impending health access concerns for an increasingly older undocumented Latino population.

Características sociodemográficas en cuidadores principales de pacientes operados de cáncer de cerebro / Socio-demographic characteristics in primary caregivers of patients with brain cancer surgery

RESUMEN Introducción: la atención al enfermo es llevada a cabo por una secuencia específica de la familia, por lo que esta es considerada un cuidador principal. Objetivo: describir las características sociodemográficas en cuidadores principales de pacientes operados de cáncer de cerebro. Materiales y métodos : se realizó un estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo, en un universo de 128 cuidadores principales de pacientes operados de cáncer de cerebro en el Hospital Universitario Clínico Quirúrgico Comandante Faustino Pérez Hernández, de Matanzas, entre 2016 y 2018. Criterio de inclusión: cuidadores que residían en la provincia y aceptación del consentimiento informado. Se excluyeron familiares de pacientes que fallecieron durante la investigación. Se aplicaron cuestionarios y entrevistas para caracterizar los resultados. Los mismos se analizaron en frecuencias absolutas, relativas, porcentual, en paquete estadístico de SPSS versión 20.0 en Windows. Resultados : predominó el sexo femenino (79,68 %). El 100 % de los cuidadores principales residían en casa del enfermo. Prevaleció el nivel de escolaridad de técnico medio (35,93 %); 88,28 % de los cuidadores mantenían vínculo laboral, y 41,40 % eran hermanas de los enfermos. Dentro de las necesidades de aprendizaje del cuidador, el déficit de conocimientos sobre la enfermedad constituyó el 73,43 %. Conclusiones: imperó el género femenino en los cuidadores con vínculo laboral, y con mayor incidencia las hermanas. Se evidenció la complejidad del cuidado en el hogar de los pacientes con secuelas, minusvalía progresiva producidas por la enfermedad, y que generalmente la mujer asume con más facilidad (AU).

ABSTRACT Introduction: the care of the patient is carried out by a specific sequence of the family, catalogued as a main caregiver. Objective: to describe the socio-demographic characteristics in main caregivers of patients who underwent a brain cancer surgery. Materials and methods: a retrospective, descriptive study was carried out in a universe of 128 main caregivers of patients who underwent brain cancer surgery in the University Hospital Faustino Perez Hernandez, of Matanzas, from 2016 until 2018. Inclusion criteria: caregivers living in the province of Matanzas and giving the informed consent. The relatives of patients who died during the research were excluded. Interviews were made and questionnaires applied to characterize the results. They were analyzed in absolute, relative, and percentage frequencies in statistical packet Windows SPSS, 20.0. Results: female sex predominated (79.68%). 100% of main caregivers lived in the house of the patient. The technician scholarship predominated (35.93%); 88.28% of the caregivers kept their employment bonds, and 41.40% were patients' sisters. The deficit of knowledge on the disease was 73.43% of the caregiver learning necessities. Conclusions: female genre prevailed in caregivers with employment bonds, with higher incidence of sisters. It was evidenced the complexity of home care of the patients with sequels, progressive disabilities caused by the disease, generally assumed more easily by women (AU).

Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years.

Projections of future global human population are traditionally made using birth/death trend extrapolations, but these methods ignore limits. Expressing humanity as a K-selected species whose numbers are limited by the global carrying capacity produces a different outlook. Population data for the second millennium up to the year 1970 was fit to a hyper-exponential growth equation, where the rate constant for growth itself grows exponentially due to growth of life-saving technology. The discrepancies between the projected growth and the actual population data since 1970 are accounted for by a decrease in the global carrying capacity due to ecosystem degradation. A system dynamics model that best fits recent population numbers suggests that the global biocapacity may already have been reduced to one-half of its historical value and global carrying capacity may be at its 1965 level and falling. Simulations suggest that population may soon peak or may have already peaked. Population projections depend strongly on the unknown fragility or robustness of the Earth's essential ecosystem services that affect agricultural production. Numbers for the 2020 global census were not available for this study.

The Challenges and Opportunities in Fostering a Long-Term Care System in the Americas

In the Region of the Americas, the number of people requiring care from others will continue to grow rapidly. The issue of long-term care call for a long-term solution that will address the demographic and epidemiological shift facing the Region. This policy brief outlines the current situation and presents the challenges in terms of human resources, financing, and monitoring and evaluation. It encourages countries to take the opportunity to develop a strategic solution for long-term care by, among others, prioritizing the issue, investing in appropriate systems, ensuring proper funding, developing evidence, and measuring progress. It is targeted at those involved in policymaking on long-term care at country and regional level.

Os desafios e as oportunidades para promover um sistema de cuidados de longa duração nas Américas

Na Região das Américas, o número de pessoas que precisam de cuidados continua crescendo rapidamente. Portanto, o cuidado de longo prazo requer uma solução duradoura que responda às mudanças demográficas e epidemiológicas que a Região está passando. Este resumo de políticas descreve a situação atual e apresenta os desafios em termos de recursos humanos, financiamento e monitoramento e avaliação. Além disso, os países são incentivados a aproveitar a oportunidade para desenvolver uma solução estratégica que aborde o cuidado de longo prazo, investindo em sistemas apropriados, financiamento suficiente e sustentável, gerando evidências e medindo o progresso, entre outros fatores. Destina-se a pessoal nacional e regional que participa nos processos de formulação de políticas nesta área.

Los desafíos y las oportunidades en la promoción de un sistema de atención a largo plazo en las Américas

En la Región de las Américas, el número de personas que necesitan cuidados sigue creciendo a gran velocidad. Por tanto, la atención a largo plazo requiere una solución duradera que dé respuesta a los cambios demográficos y epidemiológicos que experimenta la Región. En esta sinopsis de política se describe la situación actual y se presentan los desafíos en cuanto a recursos humanos, financiamiento, y seguimiento y evaluación. Además, se alienta a los países a aprovechar la oportunidad para desarrollar una solución estratégica que aborde la atención a largo plazo mediante la inversión en sistemas adecuados, un financiamiento suficiente y sostenible, la generación de evidencia y la medición de los progresos, entre otros factores. Está dirigida al personal nacional y regional que participa en los procesos de formulación de políticas en este ámbito.

Population-Based Projection of Vision-Related Disability in Australia 2020 - 2060: Prevalence, Causes, Associated Factors and Demand for Orientation and Mobility Services.

PURPOSE: To project the prevalence, causes, associated factors of vision-related disability and demand for orientation and mobility (O&M) services in Australia from 2020 to 2060. METHODS: The age-specific prevalence and main causes of vision-related disability were estimated based on primary data of 74,862 participants in 2015 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify associated factors for the outcome variables including vision-related disability, cataract, macular degeneration and glaucoma. Future prevalence of vision-related disability and demand for O&M services were forecasted using the population projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics through 2060. RESULTS: The main causes of vision-related disability are non-specific sight loss, cataracts, macular degeneration and glaucoma. Health-related associations for vision-related disability are older age, having a history of stroke, having diabetes, depression, heart disease and hearing impairment. The number of Australians with vision-related disability (283,650, 1.10%) and demand for O&M services (123,317, 0.48%) in 2020 will increase to 559,161 (1.38%) and 237,694 (0.59%) respectively in 2060. CONCLUSIONS: The number of people with vision-related disability and in need of O&M services in Australia will grow exponentially over the coming decades. General health promotion and specific strategies of early detection and timely treatments of the major eye diseases may ameliorate the trend in vision-related disability.

Degree day-based model predicts pink bollworm phenology across geographical locations of subtropics and semi-arid tropics of India.

There is a global concern about the effects of climate change driven shifts in species phenology on crop pests. Using geographically and temporally extensive data set of moth trap catches and temperatures across the cotton growing states of India, we predicted the phenology of cotton pink bollworm Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders). Our approach was centered on growing degree days (GDD), a measure of thermal accumulation that provides a mechanistic link between climate change and species' phenology. The phenology change was predicted by calculating absolute error associated with DD and ordinal date, an alternative predictor of phenology, for peak moth abundance. Our results show that GDD outperformed the ordinal dates in predicting peak moth abundance in 6 out of 10 selected locations. Using established thresholds of 13.0/34.0 °C, mean DD accumulated between the consecutive moth peaks across different years were estimated at 504.05 ± 4.84. Seven generations were determined for pink bollworm in a cropping season, the length of which varied between 35 and 73 days in response to temperature. Pink bollworm population reached its peak during third generation which can be the target for management actions. The study provides essential information for developing pink bollworm management strategies under climate change.

Sublethal effects of three insecticides on fitness parameters and population projection of Brevicoryne brassicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

The cabbage aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae (L.), is one of the major insect pests of cole crops in Iran. In most instances outbreaks are normally kept under control by application of insecticides. In this study, the sublethal effects (LC30) of three insecticides, acetamiprid, buprofezin, and thiamethoxam-lambda cyhalothrin, (TLC) were evaluated on the population growth rate of the progeny of insecticide-treated cabbage aphid adults. The age-stage, two-sex life table method was used to analyze the collected data. The results indicated that the insecticide applications affected the duration of the preadult period, their survival, reproduction, life span/longevity, and consequently, the population growth rate of the F1 generation. The indicators of the greatest sublethal effects were noted in the progeny of the TLC-treated adults. These included the lowest net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of increase (r), finite rate of increase (λ), and the longest mean generation time (T). The highest values of r, λ, R, and the lowest value of T occurred in the control group followed by, in order, the acetamiprid and buprofezin groups. These research findings will be useful in the development and implementation of future aphid management programs.

Prospective measures of aging for Central and South America.

By conventional measures, it is often remarked that Central and South America is one of the fastest aging geographic regions in the world. In recent years, however, scholars have sought to problematize the orthodox measures and concepts employed in the aging literature. By not taking dynamic changes in life expectancy into account, measures which hold chronological age constant (e.g. defining a boundary to old age at 60 or 65) represent a very narrow view of population aging. Furthermore, such constant measures may misrepresent differences between territories when performing a comparative analysis. Prospective measures based on the number of years until death present an alternative approach which can adapt to dynamic changes in life expectancy and differences over time and space. The objective of this paper, then, is to apply the new 'prospective' measures of aging to the territories of Central and South America. We calculate prospective median age; an alternative old-age threshold based on the age at which remaining life expectancy is 15 years, and calculate prospective old-age dependency ratio for 1950-2100 using estimated and projected life tables from the latest iteration of the UN's World Population Prospects. These new measures present a very different view of aging in Central and South America. While there are significant differences across countries, the pace and scale of aging are considerably slower and diminished when compared to standard, orthodox measures based on fixed chronological ages. Applying these new measures can not only serve to present a more realistic view of aging which maps onto demographic reality but can also serve to reconceptualize and reframe the issue as something which is far more manageable (e.g. through institutional reform) than is often perceived to be.